Optimistic ~ Roller Coaster Bottoming?
Outlook into Dec.
I’ve just landed back home after a weekend away—actually the second in recent weeks. It struck me that I seem to be travelling more again, which reminded me of life before Covid. Back then, it wasn’t unusual for us to head to Hong Kong for a weekend, Bali for a longer break, or Bangkok for food and time with friends.
Covid was an inflection point. Even prior to it, our lifestyle had already begun to shift, but the pandemic seemed to cement a more permanent change. Previously, we would spend October through to January or February in Switzerland, returning again between May and June. We travelled to Africa at least once a year, and in between we filled the gaps with shorter trips—overnight visits to Singapore for cocktails with friends, or quick flights to Kuala Lumpur for Chinatown.
Looking back, it’s clear how little time we actually spent at home. Life was structured around movement—travel, work commitments, and social connections. Then Covid, followed by having children, altered not just the travel itself but the continuity of experiences and the memories tied to that way of living.
In September, I wrote about the need to simply go with the flow. At that point, it was already evident that we would need to adapt—either by bringing people and systems to us, or by resuming travel. However, after less than a year of ongoing disruption driven by the political and economic environment at the time, I reached a point of exhaustion. I made a conscious decision to step back from the day-to-day intensity and focus instead on my children during what I consider their most formative years, adopting a more measured and detached approach.
When we returned from East Africa and Ceylon, we settled into a routine that, while familiar, was more constrained. Ongoing repairs and construction at home, with Burmese workers living onsite for an extended period, effectively anchored us in place.
That began to shift in January, when I travelled to Bangkok for a meeting. We visited our usual area in Siam and ended up staying overnight. On the return flight, we both remarked that it had been unexpectedly enjoyable and that perhaps it was time to start doing this again.
A few weeks later, we returned to Bangkok and extended the trip into a couple of days. It felt refreshing. Then, this past week, we went back once more—this time for a long weekend, with the children. We revisited places we hadn’t been to in six to eight years, reconnected with friends, and explored new restaurants and bars. One venue in particular stood out, with a lift traveling 76 stories at approximately 440 meters per minute, where I found myself having what was described as a tea-based cocktail—surprisingly refreshing.
With respect to the Iran conflict, I have largely taken a step back from the day-to-day narrative. My focus has been on understanding the situation at a high level and incorporating the associated risk dynamics across the short, medium, and longer term. On a personal level, however, it is not entirely abstract—we had anticipated the likelihood of escalation, and I have close friends currently deployed, including one flying the E-7A Wedgetail and another operating the KC-30A MRTT.
As a result, I place limited weight on official claims of “success,” whether they originate from the Trump administration or from Iranian sources. To date, that instinct has broadly held. Similar to the experience of the Ukraine–Russia conflict, there is often a significant divergence between public messaging and underlying reality. Over time, it becomes clear that what is presented externally rarely reflects the full extent or nature of events on the ground. Observations and firsthand accounts tend to provide a more sobering perspective, reinforcing the need to treat all sides’ narratives with a degree of caution—an approach I am applying equally to this emerging conflict.
What i do need to recognize is the impact, and that potential seepage into the following.
As you can see in the above, my prior suggested ‘offloading’ or ‘onloading’ either direct implicit message, or via my articles -> was following this system i created, it points to a peak in July / August
Which is showing a max upside of 130% - for $BTC - based on available liquidity but its all based on whats happening (Trump, War, Bonds, Oil, Dollar etc).
BTC 12m Log % the percent move in Bitcoin in a logarithmic chart
Global liquidity today has impact down the line - so it moves forward and creates a roadmap,
As you see Bitcoin follows that roadmap within the deviations of the liquidity flow
Note: Blended wave starts moving up in Dec 2026 BUT stealth QE wave actually has it overall moving down (suffocates Blended) which is a mix of both.
So optimistic into July/August (may get front run up/down) or peter out based on the war impact on liquidity, bond volatility, dollar, liquidity overall being suffocated, however Dec 2026 is looking like a bottom before a move up kinda like a inverted H/S pattern however when you overlay Stealth QE Wave over Blended which actually is made up in part on the impact of Stealth QE you see its moving down (will know more in a month or so).
Seems to align / not-align with:
Raoul Pal ~ Liquidity hitting
Cross Border Capital (Dr Michael Howell). - doesn’t align with, he’s firmly against risk, but also suggests buying BTC when two standard deviations oversold...
TechDev - doesn’t align with, he believe one more low (upper 50’s) - would align with in context the liquidity deviations are there to support a push down before up.
Henrik Zeberg - believes one blow off top is loading.
Until next time ~ we intended to go into the Indian Ocean or Pacific Ocean for a long jaunt but Jet Fuel is running out in this region now ;)